The Vakhsh ( ; Tajik language and ), also known as the Surkhob () in north-central Tajikistan and as the Kyzyl-Suu () in Kyrgyzstan, is a Central Asian river and one of the main rivers of Tajikistan. It is a tributary of the Amu Darya river. "Tajikistan - Topography and Drainage" in Tajikistan: a Country Study (Washington: Library of Congress, 1996)
After it exits the Pamirs, the Vakhsh passes through the fertile lowlands of southwest Tajikistan. It ends when it flows into the Panj to form the Amu Darya, at the border of Tajikistan and Afghanistan. The Tigrovaya Balka Nature Reserve, which was the last habitat of the now-extinct Caspian tiger in the former USSR, is located at the confluence of the Vakhsh and the Panj.Mary Pat Silviera et al., Environmental Performance Reviews: Tajikistan. (New York and Geneva: United Nations, 2004), 124
The catchment area of the Vakhsh is 39,100 km2, of which 31,200 km2 (79.8%) lies within Tajikistan. The river contributes about 25% of the total flow of the Amu Darya, its main stem. Its average discharge is 538 m3/s, with an annual discharge of 20.0 km3. However, since the Vakhsh is fed mostly by snowmelt and glaciers, these flow rates have great seasonal variability between winter and summer. Measurements at the Nurek Dam indicate that winter flow rates average around 150 m3/s, whereas flow rates during the summer months can exceed 1500 m3/s – a tenfold increase.
It took until the 1950s, however, for dam construction to begin on the Vakhsh. The Perepadnaya power station, was the first to be commissioned in 1959. It is situated on a canal off the Golovnaya Dam which was commissioned in 1963. The giant Nurek dam was constructed between 1961 and 1980. Baipaza Dam was completed in 1983.
To build transmission lines over the Pamirs would have been prohibitively expensive, so, in order to take advantage of the electricity produced by these dams, the Soviet Union built many industries nearby.Conolly, Beyond the Urals, pp. 145-149 The Tajik Aluminum Company plant is a prime example. Other industries established locally were chemical plants, nitrogen fertilizer factories, and cotton gins.Conolly, Beyond the Urals, p. 172
The dams, particularly the behind them, were also built with the purpose of providing water for agriculture. The Soviet Union promoted cotton farming in the Vakhsh Valley, as well as and , and drew water from the Vakhsh for irrigation. The Vakhsh Valley Canal Project, which expanded farmland along the river's lower reaches, predated the dams, having been completed in 1933. In the 1960s, after the reservoirs had been constructed, engineers dug tunnels through the surrounding mountains to irrigate other valleys.Conolly, Beyond the Urals, pp. 208-220 Water storage in the reservoirs also helped control the river's flow, so as to provide a more reliable water supply for downstream users in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
However, with increasing regional tension post-independence, this system is breaking down, with no conclusive cooperative arrangement yet. Fuel deliveries from downstream nations have been getting less reliable and more expensive, and impoverished Tajikistan cannot adapt by increasing winter hydroelectric generation since this would jeopardize irrigation and electricity exports in the summer. This dependence has caused energy crises in the winters of 2008 and 2009, in which the capital, Dushanbe, lost power and heating. Heightened nationalism and border disputes further complicate the search for a solution to Central Asia's water needs, according to a study conducted by the International Crisis Group.International Crisis Group. " Water Pressures in Central Asia ", CrisisGroup.org . 11 September 2014. Retrieved 6 October 2014.
Tajikistan is therefore pursuing a course of action to increase hydroelectric capacity by building more dams on the Vakhsh, in order to promote economic growth and move towards energy independence.Murodbek Laldjebaev, “The Water-Energy Puzzle in Central Asia: The Tajikistan Perspective,” Water Resources Development 26 (2010): 23-34. Another four dams are planned or under construction, including the Rogun Dam. The Rogun Dam began construction in Soviet times but remains uncompleted; now Tajikistan has recommenced the project with financial support from the RUSAL. If constructed to its full planned height, it will supersede the Nurek as tallest in the world.
This project has caused great controversy. Just as energy dependence threatens Tajikistan, so water dependence threatens the downstream nations. For this reason, Uzbekistan was highly critical of the Rogun Dam, claiming that it would “put it Tajikistan firmly in control of the river”. The World Bank responded to these tensions by launching investigations into the social and environmental impacts of the dam. However, following the death of its former leader Islam Karimov in 2016, in 2018 Uzbekistan dropped its opposition to the Rogun Dam. "Go ahead and build it, but we hold to certain guarantees in accordance with these conventions that have been signed by you," Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov said in a televised appearance on July 5, 2018.
Since the waters of the Vakhsh eventually flow into the Aral Sea, pollution in the Vakhsh contributes to eutrophication there.
Such blockages pose a significant threat to the river's dams and hydroelectric power generation. A large landslide downstream from the Baipaza Dam has blocked the river twice (in 1992 and 2002) ever since this dam opened in 1985. Both blockages were immediately blasted to clear the river channel, since they threatened to raise the water level high enough to flood the dam. Such an event could potentially have serious economic consequences by disrupting power generation, stopping production at the Tajik Aluminum Company, and cutting off supplies of drinking and irrigation water for downstream users. In the worst-case scenario, failure of a landslide dam could cause catastrophic floods.
Recognizing these threats, the Asian Development Bank responded to the landslide of 2002 by granting the government of Tajikistan a low-interest loan to stabilize the valley slopes and mitigate the potential for blockages in the future. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors on a Proposed Loan to the Republic of Tajikistan for the Baipaza Landslide Stabilization Project (Manila: Asian Development Bank, 2003).
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